Macro Regime
Monetary policy, liquidity, and the economic regime.
Regime Info
Stagflation
30 days in regime
Growth ↓ Inflation ↑ — Stagflation. Long gold, TIPS, energy.
Regime Allocation
Growth
0%
Value
40%
Gold
50%
Bonds
10%
Yield Curve
Bull Flattener
10Y–2Y Spread
+0.55%
3M Δ: -0.04%
10Y–3M Spread
+0.38%
inversion below 0
Regime
Bull Flattener
≈ Quad 4
Signal
Long rates falling faster than short rates. Growth and inflation cooling.
Spot Curve — Today vs 3M Ago vs 1Y Ago
Spread History — 24 Months
Curve Regime Reference
Bull Steepener
Quad 1
Short rates fall faster than long rates
Fed is cutting; growth bottoming out. Credit expanding.
Favors: Equities, High Yield, Cyclicals
Bear Steepener
Quad 2
Long rates rise faster than short rates
Inflation expectations rising. Growth still OK.
Favors: TIPS, Commodities, Real Assets
Bear Flattener
Quad 3
Short rates rise faster than long rates
Fed hiking to kill inflation. Slowdown incoming.
Favors: Cash, Short Duration, Defensive
Bull Flattener
Quad 4
Long rates fall faster than short rates
Growth and inflation cooling. Flight to safety.
Favors: Long Duration Bonds, Gold
Maturity Wall
GLI Methodology
National Debt
$38.5T
Interest / Debt
3.2%
Total Maturing
$26,443.1B
Annual Refinancing Obligation — Billions USD
GDPNow: 4.2%
as of Oct 1
Latest GDP
+2.2%
YoY — Q4 '25
GDPNow Est.
Headline GDPNow is shown as a QoQ Annualized rate. On the chart below, it is converted to an implied YoY rate for accurate trend plotting.
+4.2%
QoQ Ann. — Q1(E)
Inflation (CPI)
+2.7%
YoY — Q4 '25
Signal
Goldilocks
GDP vs Inflation
Unemployment
4.3%
UNRATE — Current
Phillips Signal
Soft Landing
U vs CPI tradeoff
GDP Growth (YoY) & Inflation (CPI YoY) — Last ~52 Months (17 Quarters)
Govt Balance
-7.7%
-2.0% ▼
% of GDP — Q4 2025
Foreign Balance
-1.9%
+0.3% ▲
Trade balance % GDP
Private Savings
+9.6%
+1.7% ▲
Derived: -(Govt + Foreign)
Sectoral Balances as % of GDP — Last 52 Months
Sectoral Identity Reference (Godley Framework)
Private Sector
Households + Corporations. Positive = net saving/surplus. Funded by govt deficit + trade deficit.
Govt Injection
Federal receipts minus outlays. Negative = deficit spending. Direct injection into private sector.
Foreign Sector
US trade balance (X − M). Negative = trade deficit — foreigners holding USD assets, leaking demand abroad.
Identity: Private + Govt + Foreign = 0 (Godley sectoral accounting). Private = −(Govt + Foreign).