Weekend Prep Weekly outlook — the week that was and the week ahead. Open weekly outlook

OI Intraday

SPX OI Intraday
NDX OI Intraday
RUT OI Intraday
ES OI Intraday
NQ OI Intraday
SPY OI Intraday
QQQ OI Intraday
IWM OI Intraday

About

This chart shows two NYSE sessions of 5-minute price candles with ±1σ bands, VWAP, and call/put walls, a right-hand open interest profile for the 0–1 day window, a bottom net drift panel of cumulative call/put premium and volume, and horizontal levels (gamma flip, max pain, walls) within ±100 points of the last price.

Instructions

Read the price candles against the green and red background bands to see whether price moves with or against net OI dominance. Compare the OI profile fills at key strikes with the horizontal walls, gamma flip, and max pain to spot clustering of positioning. Watch the net drift panel to check if cumulative call or put premium and volume confirm the price direction. The header badge gives a quick view of the dominant OI side near the spot price.

Glyphs

MarkMeaning
Green candle5-minute price increase
Red candle5-minute price decrease
Shaded band (±1σ)One standard deviation range around price
VWAP lineVolume-weighted average price
Horizontal call wallCall strike with significant open interest
Horizontal put wallPut strike with significant open interest
Horizontal gamma flip lineGamma flip level
Horizontal max pain lineMax pain level
Green fill (OI profile)Net OI dominance (calls > puts) at each strike
Red fill (OI profile)Net OI dominance (puts > calls) at each strike
Green background bandNet OI dominance (calls > puts) behind price
Red background bandNet OI dominance (puts > calls) behind price
Dashed gray curveNext-calendar-day expiry open interest (ex 1DTE)
Header badgeDominant OI side near spot (Calls, Puts, or Neutral)
Green line (net drift)Cumulative call premium paid ($M)
Red line (net drift)Cumulative put premium paid ($M)
Green filled bar (net drift)Cumulative call contracts traded (K)
Red filled bar (net drift)Cumulative put contracts traded (K)

OI Weekly

SPX OI Weekly
NDX OI Weekly
RUT OI Weekly
ES OI Weekly
NQ OI Weekly
SPY OI Weekly
QQQ OI Weekly
IWM OI Weekly

About

Five regular-trading-hours sessions of 30-minute candles with weekly and monthly VWAP, call and put walls, and a right-hand open-interest profile for strikes expiring in 15 days or less.

Instructions

Read the OI profile against price to see where puts or calls dominate near current levels. Compare the 1DTE curve to the full ≤15 day profile to gauge near-term hedging pressure. Watch for price reacting at walls, gamma flip, or max pain when those levels align with net OI dominance bands. The header badge gives a quick summary of which side controls the strikes around spot.

Glyphs

MarkMeaning
30-minute candlesPrice action for each half-hour of regular trading hours
Price gapsOvernight or session gaps preserved on the candle chart
Weekly VWAPVolume-weighted average price for the current week
Monthly VWAPVolume-weighted average price for the current month
Call wallStrike with concentrated call open interest, shown as a horizontal line
Put wallStrike with concentrated put open interest, shown as a horizontal line
Gamma flipStrike where dealer gamma exposure changes sign, shown as a horizontal line
Max painStrike of maximum option-holder loss at expiry, shown as a horizontal line
Green fillNet call open interest dominance at that strike (profile) or price band (background)
Red fillNet put open interest dominance at that strike (profile) or price band (background)
Dashed gray curveOpen interest for next-calendar-day expiry only (1DTE) on the profile panel
Header badgeDominant open interest side near spot: Calls, Puts, or Neutral
Put OI barsHorizontal bars extending left showing put open interest by strike
Call OI barsHorizontal bars extending right showing call open interest by strike
Shaded background bandsPrice-panel background colored by net open interest dominance

Quarterly Chart

SPX Quarterly Chart
ES Quarterly Chart
SPY Quarterly Chart

About

Thirteen weeks of daily price bars for SPX, ES, and SPY with quarterly VWAP, gamma-derived put floor and call ceiling, JPM collar strikes, COT cost basis, and Fed fair value scenarios overlaid. Anchors include quarterly VWAP, dealer gamma walls, the disclosed JPM collar, COT cost basis from CFTC data, and Fed fair value from a dividend-discount model.

Instructions

Read price against the quarterly VWAP to gauge intratrend bias. Watch how price reacts at the put floor and call ceiling for gamma-driven support or resistance. Compare the COT cost basis to current price to see if levered funds are underwater or in profit. Use the Fed fair value lines to assess how a 25 bp policy shift would reprice the index.

Glyphs

MarkMeaning
BadgeCurrent regime; see Badge states below
Daily barsDaily OHLC bars for SPX, ES, or SPY (selectable tabs)
VWAP (q) lineCumulative volume-weighted average price, reset each calendar quarter
Put floor lineLower strike bound of the net-gamma curve, clipped to ±300 points from last close
Call ceiling lineUpper strike bound of the net-gamma curve, clipped to ±300 points from last close
JPM short call lineShort call strike of the quarterly collar, steps at quarter open
JPM long put lineLong put strike of the quarterly collar, steps at quarter open
JPM short put lineShort put strike of the quarterly collar, steps at quarter open
Pink dotted lineCOT Cost Basis – levered-funds average entry from positioning data
Cyan dotted lineFed Fair Value – earnings divided by yield at current policy
Orange dotted line (Fed Cut)Fair value if next Fed meeting cuts 25 bp
Orange dotted line (Fed Hike)Fair value if next Fed meeting hikes 25 bp

Badge states

  • Above VWAP — latest close is above quarterly VWAP (green).
  • Below VWAP — latest close is below quarterly VWAP (red).
Beta Experimental chart — methodology and layout may change.

COT Positioning

COT Positioning

Futures positioning harness

Experimental comparison of methods that turn weekly index-futures positioning into price-axis context. Three stacked panels share one time axis over the last six months. The spine leaves a forward window for a one-month scenario fan.

  • SPX spine — spot, regime shading, extreme markers, cost-basis line, and anchored levels. Colored dashed lines are constant-drift SPX tapes (+1σ / flat / −1σ / −2σ) that leave the last SPX print. Dotted rays mark the ST / MT / LT trend pivots — the 20 / 60 / 200-day moving averages where each horizon flips sign.
  • CTA panel — historical trend-follower estimate. Each horizon compares price to its moving average, divides the gap by the noise a random walk makes over that window, and passes the result through tanh. The three horizons are averaged and then vol-targeted: exposure shrinks when realized vol runs above 15% and levers up to 1.5× when it runs below. Colored dashed lines are implied CTA exposure under each SPX tape, re-scored every session, with the value at the horizon end labeled.
  • COT index — 0–100 normalization over a 156-week rolling window; 90/10 bands.

Positioning is aligned to its public release date (Friday, three days after the Tuesday snapshot) so the chart does not front-run the weekly report. The latest report is therefore up to a week behind the tape, and says nothing about flow since the snapshot.

The badge reads asset-manager flow — the four-week change in that cohort's net book, with the size in the subtitle. Asset managers are the directional cohort here: over the 156-week window they were net long in every week, while leveraged funds were net short in every week. The leveraged short is largely a cash-futures basis position, not a view, so its level and its entry price carry no sentiment. The entry line is labelled by side — for a net-short book an entry below spot is a loss, not support.

The CTA panel carries a dollar axis only when the model earns it. Unit exposure is fit by least squares to CFTC leveraged-funds net notional over the full 156-week window; the subtitle shows the correlation. Below r = 0.40 the panel keeps the [−1, +1] signal axis instead of publishing a dollar number the data does not support. Leveraged funds are a proxy cohort, not CTAs, so treat the dollar scale as an order of magnitude.

Experimental comparison harness — not investment advice.

Beta Experimental chart — methodology and layout may change.

Greek Cycle Support

SPX Greek Cycle Support
SPX Greek Cycle Support
NDX Greek Cycle Support
NDX Greek Cycle Support
ES Greek Cycle Support
ES Greek Cycle Support
NQ Greek Cycle Support
NQ Greek Cycle Support
SPY Greek Cycle Support
SPY Greek Cycle Support
QQQ Greek Cycle Support
QQQ Greek Cycle Support

About

Time series of absolute dealer gamma or vanna mass in the front monthly OPEX cycle, with weeklies and 0DTE folded into the next third Friday. The chart compares the current session to past months at the same days-to-OPEX phase.

Instructions

Read the front-cycle mass line against the same-phase median to see whether dealer hedging pressure is elevated or subdued for this point in the cycle. Compare the mass level to the underlying price line to judge if hedging flow aligns with or opposes the move. A mass reading far above median near expiry often means dealers are short gamma and must hedge aggressively.

Glyphs

MarkMeaning
BadgeCurrent regime; see Badge states below
Underlying price lineUnderlying price over sessions (top panel)
Front-cycle mass lineAbsolute dealer gamma or vanna mass in front monthly OPEX cycle (bottom panel)
Dashed vertical linesMonthly option expiry (third Friday; quarterlies drawn heavier)
Dotted horizontal lineSame-phase median from prior cycles (when enough history exists)

Badge states

  • ABOVE AVG (red) — front mass is at least 15% above the same-phase median.
  • TYPICAL (green) — within ±15% of the median.
  • BELOW AVG (blue) — front mass is at least 15% below that median.
  • BUILDING — not enough same-phase history yet.
Beta Experimental chart — methodology and layout may change.

SPX Pattern Radar

SPX PATTERN RADAR — PRICE + YIELDS
SPX PATTERN RADAR — REGIME
SPX PATTERN RADAR — GEX (BETA)

SPX Pattern Radar

One card, three tracks. Price+Yields and Regime run a causal matrix-profile scan over a 63-session window across up to ~5 years of history and report median forward returns at 5 / 21 / 63 sessions. GEX uses the longest window that fits available rollup history (21 / 42 / 63) and upgrades as that history grows. Matches prefer the same days-to-monthly-OPEX phase.

Tabs

  • Price+Yields — log-return shape plus 10-year yield level, day-over-day yield change, and 2s10s spread.
  • Regime — returns, realized vol, VIX, and days-to-OPEX.
  • GEX — returns, vol, net dealer GEX, day-over-day GEX change, and OPEX phase (beta: shorter GEX history, adaptive window).

How to read

  • Shaded box — current query window for that track.
  • White dots — historical analogs (when they fall in the displayed window).
  • Gold line (Price+Yields) — 10-year Treasury yield on the right axis.
  • Footer — best match date, median forward returns, win rate.

Intraday Levels

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 7438
  • Max Pain 8400
  • Put Wall 7400
  • Call Wall 7500

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 7438
  • Max Pain 7415
  • Put Wall 7400
  • Gamma Flip 7448
  • Call Wall 7500

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 7320 – 7371

High open-interest zones

Calls 7575–7700 · centroid 7624 · 302.2K OI
Puts 7200–7325 · centroid 7257 · 215.2K OI

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 28106
  • Max Pain 25500
  • Gamma Flip 27909
  • Put Wall 28000
  • Call Wall 28500

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 28106
  • Max Pain 27770
  • Put Wall 25800
  • Put Wall 28000
  • Gamma Flip 28060
  • Call Wall 28350
  • Gamma Flip* 28450

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 27206 – 27692

High open-interest zones

Calls 28330–28790 · centroid 28515 · 1.8K OI
Puts 24000–24460 · centroid 24102 · 5.3K OI

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 2946
  • Max Pain 2880
  • Put Wall 2890
  • Call Wall 2950
  • Gamma Flip 2967

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 2946
  • Max Pain 2940
  • Put Wall 2890
  • Call Wall 2950
  • Gamma Flip 3001

High open-interest zones

Calls 3005–3055 · centroid 3028 · 6.5K OI
Puts 2855–2905 · centroid 2879 · 39.9K OI

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 7378
  • Max Pain 6100
  • Put Wall 7300
  • Gamma Flip 7422
  • Call Wall 7475

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 7378
  • Max Pain 7000
  • Put Wall 7350
  • Call Wall 7425
  • Gamma Flip 7477

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 7350 – 7399

High open-interest zones

Calls 7600–7765 · centroid 7681 · 110.4K OI
Puts 6940–7105 · centroid 7017 · 96.4K OI

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 27521
  • Max Pain 27200
  • Put Wall 27200
  • Call Wall 28000
  • Gamma Flip 28148

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 27521
  • Max Pain 27000
  • Put Wall 27000
  • Call Wall 28000
  • Gamma Flip 28291

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 27337 – 27813

High open-interest zones

Calls 28600–29200 · centroid 28874 · 5.8K OI
Puts 26800–27400 · centroid 27060 · 7.4K OI

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 742
  • Max Pain 740
  • Put Wall 740
  • Gamma Flip 742
  • Call Wall 745

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 742
  • Max Pain 726
  • Put Wall 740
  • Gamma Flip 744
  • Call Wall 745

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 730 – 734

High open-interest zones

Calls 748–761 · centroid 754 · 337.4K OI
Puts 709–722 · centroid 715 · 445.4K OI

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 684
  • Max Pain 700
  • Put Wall 680
  • Gamma Flip 681
  • Call Wall 685

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 684
  • Max Pain 680
  • Put Wall 680
  • Gamma Flip 682
  • Call Wall 685

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 662 – 673

High open-interest zones

Calls 699–711 · centroid 704 · 167.8K OI
Puts 639–651 · centroid 646 · 234.7K OI

Intraday chart 0–1d

  • Spot 292
  • Max Pain 283
  • Put Wall 290
  • Gamma Flip 292
  • Call Wall 295

Weekly chart ≤15d

  • Spot 292
  • Max Pain 283
  • Put Wall 290
  • Gamma Flip 294
  • Call Wall 295
  • Call Wall 313

High open-interest zones

Calls 295–300 · centroid 297 · 91.3K OI
Puts 285–290 · centroid 286 · 340.5K OI

About

Text summary of key option-derived levels for the current session and week: call walls, put walls, gamma flip, max pain, unfilled overnight gaps, and high open-interest strike zones. Two tabs switch between a 0-1 day window (Intraday) and a <=15 day window (Weekly).

Instructions

Read the call and put walls together to bracket the expected range for the chosen window. Compare the gamma flip to the current price: price above the flip suggests dealer hedging dampens moves; price below suggests hedging amplifies them. Check max pain as a magnet only when time to expiration is short and open interest is concentrated. Use open gaps as reference levels that have not yet been revisited. Compare the high OI zones against the walls to see whether the largest clusters reinforce or diverge from the spaced levels.

Glyphs

MarkMeaning
Call wallNearest call strike clusters above spot, spaced 2.5% apart (Intraday) or 5% apart (Weekly), maximum two per side
Put wallNearest put strike clusters below spot, spaced 2.5% apart (Intraday) or 5% apart (Weekly), maximum two per side
Gamma flipStrike where dealer gamma exposure changes sign, marking a potential regime boundary
Max painStrike where option holders' aggregate loss is minimized at expiration
GapUnfilled overnight price range with the session date it opened; filled gaps are excluded
High OI call zoneOpen-interest-weighted centroid and strike band for the dominant call cluster near spot
High OI put zoneOpen-interest-weighted centroid and strike band for the dominant put cluster near spot
Intraday tabLevels calculated from options expiring in 0-1 day
Weekly tabLevels calculated from options expiring in <=15 days

Regime

Macro
Fed Watch Hike Credit Stress NORMAL Yield Curve Bear Flattener Weighted S&P A/D Mixed Quad (Nowcast) Q2 Reflation Quad (Yield Curve) Q3 Stagflation
Volatility
Volatility Index (VIX) VOL NORMAL Index Dispersion DISPERSION SPIKE Dispersion Ratio Extreme Setup VIX Term Structure CONTANGO Dark Index (DIX) POSITIVE DIX Net Gamma (GEX) NEGATIVE GEX

About

A dashboard of regime badges from macro, credit, equity, and volatility charts, showing the current classification for each market slice. Each tile links to its full chart for detail.

Instructions

Read the Fed Watch badge against the macro and volatility tiles to see if policy expectations align with growth and risk regimes. Check whether macro tiles agree with each other and with the vol tiles; divergence often precedes a regime shift. Hover any vol tile for the raw level and z-score to gauge how extreme the signal is.

Glyphs

MarkMeaning
Fed Watch badgeDominant Fed stance: Cut, Hold, or Hike from fed funds futures
Macro tile badgeRegime classification for yield curve, credit, quad map, or weighted breadth
Volatility z-score badgeFull-history z-score regime for VIX or index dispersion
Dedicated classifier badgeRegime from dedicated chart for dispersion ratio, term structure, DIX, or GEX
Green badge on volatility tileNormal level versus full history

Economic Calendar

Time Event Kind Metric Previous Expected Actual Status
08:30 ET Gross Domestic Product Growth Level 31.86K 32.12K 32.48K Released
Y/Y — — —
M/M +1.38% +0.84% +1.94%
08:30 ET Personal Income and Outlays Inflation Level 131.5 131.7 131.4 Released
Y/Y — +3.9% +3.7%
M/M +0.48% +0.11% -0.1%
08:30 ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Labor Level 187K 200.79K 197K Released
Y/Y -14.61% -8.31% -10.05%
M/M -21000K +13795K +10000K
11:00 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 3.75 4.32 4.95 Released
M/M +202.36% +15.33% +32.22%
12:30 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 4.95 5.07 — Upcoming
M/M +32.22% +2.37% —
12:30 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 4.95 5.07 — Upcoming
M/M +32.22% +2.37% —
08:30 ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Labor Level 197K 196.28K — Upcoming
Y/Y -10.05% — —
M/M +10000K -720K —
12:30 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 4.95 5.07 — Upcoming
M/M +32.22% +2.37% —
08:30 ET Employment Situation Labor Level 158.98K 158.97K — Upcoming
Y/Y +0.32% +0.27% —
M/M -17K -10K —
08:30 ET Consumer Price Index Inflation Y/Y +3.5% +3.9% — Upcoming
M/M -0.42% +0.66% —
08:30 ET Producer Price Index Inflation Y/Y +5.5% +5.7% — Upcoming
M/M -0.69% +1.02% —
08:30 ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Labor Level 197K 196.28K — Upcoming
Y/Y -10.05% — —
M/M +10000K -720K —
12:30 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 4.95 5.07 — Upcoming
M/M +32.22% +2.37% —
Guide

Each release shows separate rows for the headline level, month-over-month change, and year-over-year change when available. Previous is the last print; Actual fills in after the release. GDPNow and Fed projection rows use level only. Statement and press conference rows show a status when released or live.

Upcoming — before the scheduled time (countdown shown). Soon — release window (~15 minutes after the print time while waiting for data). Late — past the window with no actual yet. Released — actual is in.

Payrolls-style series show M/M as a thousands change (K). Policy rate decisions show M/M as basis points (bps). Click the event name to jump to the related chart on Credit.