Macro Compass
— Goldilocks
Regime Info
Readme âšī¸
Q@allocQuad
Stagflation
30 days in regime
Growth ↓ Inflation ↑ — Stagflation. Long gold, TIPS, energy.
Regime Allocation
Growth
0%
Value
40%
Gold
50%
Bonds
10%
Yield Curve
Bull Steepener
Readme âšī¸
10Yâ2Y Spread
+0.59%
3M Î: +0.04%
10Yâ3M Spread
+0.30%
inversion below 0
Regime
Bull Steepener
â Quad 1
Signal
Short rates falling faster than long rates. Fed cutting; growth bottoming.
Spot Curve â Today vs 3M Ago vs 1Y Ago
Spread History â 24 Months
Curve Regime Reference
Bull Steepener
Quad 1
Short rates fall faster than long rates
Fed is cutting; growth bottoming out. Credit expanding.
Favors: Equities, High Yield, Cyclicals
Bear Steepener
Quad 2
Long rates rise faster than short rates
Inflation expectations rising. Growth still OK.
Favors: TIPS, Commodities, Real Assets
Bear Flattener
Quad 3
Short rates rise faster than long rates
Fed hiking to kill inflation. Slowdown incoming.
Favors: Cash, Short Duration, Defensive
Bull Flattener
Quad 4
Long rates fall faster than short rates
Growth and inflation cooling. Flight to safety.
Favors: Long Duration Bonds, Gold
ETF Sector Rotation
02/23 - 03/02
TLT
+1.2%
QQQ
+1.0%
SPY
+0.5%
GLD
+0.5%
UUP
-0.0%
02/16 - 02/23
GLD
+4.0%
UUP
+1.0%
SPY
+0.1%
TLT
+0.0%
QQQ
-0.1%
02/09 - 02/16
TLT
+2.5%
UUP
+0.1%
GLD
-0.9%
SPY
-1.8%
QQQ
-2.0%
02/02 - 02/09
GLD
+9.3%
TLT
+1.1%
SPY
-0.2%
UUP
-0.7%
QQQ
-1.9%
01/26 - 02/02
UUP
+0.8%
SPY
+0.4%
QQQ
+0.1%
TLT
-2.0%
GLD
-8.1%