Weekend Prep Weekly outlook — the week that was and the week ahead. Open weekly outlook

OI Intraday

OI Intraday · SPX
OI Intraday · NDX
OI Intraday · Rut
OI Intraday · ES
OI Intraday · NQ
OI Intraday · SPY
OI Intraday · QQQ
OI Intraday · IWM

OI Intraday

Two NYSE sessions of 5-minute candles with the same ±1σ bands, gaps, VWAP, and call/put walls as the Intraday chart. The Y axis extends 0.5% below the session low and 0.5% above the session high. The right-hand panel shows open interest for the 0–1 day window (puts left, calls right).

Open-interest profile

Strikes run vertically; open interest runs horizontally. The green/red fill shows net OI dominance at each strike. Background bands behind price use the same net-OI rule.

  • ex 1DTE — dashed gray curve for next-calendar-day expiry only.
  • Header badge — dominant OI side near spot (Calls, Puts, or Neutral).

Net drift panel

Bottom strip aligned to the same time axis: cumulative call and put premium ($M) on the left axis; cumulative call/put contract volume (K) as filled bars on the right axis.

Levels on price

Horizontal call/put walls, gamma flip, and max pain use the same 0–1 day logic as the Intraday chart. Only levels within ±100 points of the last price are drawn.

OI Weekly

OI Weekly · SPX
OI Weekly · NDX
OI Weekly · Rut
OI Weekly · ES
OI Weekly · NQ
OI Weekly · SPY
OI Weekly · QQQ
OI Weekly · IWM

OI Weekly

Five RTH sessions with 30-minute candles — same gaps, weekly/monthly VWAP, and call/put walls as the Weekly Chart. The right-hand panel shows open interest for the ≤15 day window (puts left, calls right).

Open-interest profile

Strikes run vertically; open interest runs horizontally. The green/red fill shows net OI dominance at each strike. Background bands behind price use the same net-OI rule.

  • ex 1DTE — dashed gray curve for next-calendar-day expiry only.
  • Header badge — dominant OI side near spot (Calls, Puts, or Neutral).

Levels on price

Call/put walls, gamma flip, and max pain use the same ≤15 day logic as the Weekly Chart. Walls are spaced at least 5% of spot apart (up to two per side). Reference lines on the price panel are clipped to ±200 points of the last close.

Quarterly Chart

Quarterly Chart · SPX
Quarterly Chart · ES
Quarterly Chart · SPY

Quarterly Chart

Thirteen weeks of daily bars (SPX, ES, SPY tabs). The Y axis extends 2.5% below the window low and 2.5% above the window high, and expands to include COT and Fed fair-value scenarios when they fall outside that band. Put floor and call ceiling lines are clipped to ±300 points of the last close.

  • VWAP (q) — cumulative VWAP, reset each calendar quarter.
  • Put floor / call ceiling — outer strikes on the net-gamma curve.
  • JPM collar — short call, long put, short put; steps at quarter open (legend shows strike).
  • COT Cost Basis — levered-funds average entry from positioning data (pink dotted).
  • Fed Fair Value — earnings ÷ yield at current policy (cyan dotted).
  • Fed Cut / Hike .25% — fair value if the next meeting moves one 25 bp step down or up (orange dotted).

Badge states

  • Above VWAP — latest close is above quarterly VWAP (green).
  • Below VWAP — latest close is below quarterly VWAP (red).
Beta Experimental chart — methodology and layout may change.

COT Positioning Harness

COT Positioning Harness

Futures positioning harness

Experimental comparison of methods that turn weekly index-futures positioning into price-axis context. Three stacked panels share one time axis over the last six months. The spine leaves a forward window for a one-month scenario fan.

  • SPX spine — spot, regime shading, extreme markers, cost-basis line, and anchored levels. Colored dashed lines are constant-drift SPX tapes (+1σ / flat / −1σ / −2σ) that leave the last SPX print. Dotted rays mark the ST / MT / LT trend pivots — the 20 / 60 / 200-day moving averages where each horizon flips sign.
  • CTA panel — historical trend-follower estimate. Each horizon compares price to its moving average, divides the gap by the noise a random walk makes over that window, and passes the result through tanh. The three horizons are averaged and then vol-targeted: exposure shrinks when realized vol runs above 15% and levers up to 1.5× when it runs below. Colored dashed lines are implied CTA exposure under each SPX tape, re-scored every session, with the value at the horizon end labeled.
  • COT index — 0–100 normalization over a 156-week rolling window; 90/10 bands.

Positioning is aligned to its public release date (Friday, three days after the Tuesday snapshot) so the chart does not front-run the weekly report. The latest report is therefore up to a week behind the tape, and says nothing about flow since the snapshot.

The badge reads asset-manager flow — the four-week change in that cohort's net book, with the size in the subtitle. Asset managers are the directional cohort here: over the 156-week window they were net long in every week, while leveraged funds were net short in every week. The leveraged short is largely a cash-futures basis position, not a view, so its level and its entry price carry no sentiment. The entry line is labelled by side — for a net-short book an entry below spot is a loss, not support.

The CTA panel carries a dollar axis only when the model earns it. Unit exposure is fit by least squares to CFTC leveraged-funds net notional over the full 156-week window; the subtitle shows the correlation. Below r = 0.40 the panel keeps the [−1, +1] signal axis instead of publishing a dollar number the data does not support. Leveraged funds are a proxy cohort, not CTAs, so treat the dollar scale as an order of magnitude.

Experimental comparison harness — not investment advice.

Beta Experimental chart — methodology and layout may change.

Target Drift

Target Drift SPX
Target Drift ES
Target Drift NQ

Target Drift

Beta chart that pairs two structure strikes with an options-implied chance the underlying drifts into the upside target.

  • Shadow gamma — largest dealer short-gamma body below spot (put wing). The shaded band covers nearby strikes carrying a comparable short-gamma load; it collapses to the single line when one strike dominates.
  • Centroid / target — long-gamma mass center above the flip, Σ(K·Γ⁺)/ΣΓ⁺ (or density mode when configured). Absolute gamma is not used: it is directionally blind.
  • Line in the sand — existing gamma flip.
  • Session low — LoD from today’s RTH bars (pain re-anchor when quotes are live).
  • P↑ — risk-neutral P(spot reaches target), read off a Breeden–Litzenberger density built on one expiry’s smile.

Right panel shows the same 0–1 day net gamma profile used to pick the strikes. Pain ratio badges stay empty until two-contract quote sampling is enabled.

The P↑ badge is omitted rather than guessed. It stays empty when the chain quotes implied vol on too few strikes to support a smile, when the recovered density fails its stability checks, or when the target sits so far out that a one-day probability rounds away — a structural target several standard deviations above spot is common and is a real answer, not a failure.

Experimental beta card — not investment advice.

Beta Experimental chart — methodology and layout may change.

Greek Cycle Support

Greek Cycle Support · SPX
Greek Cycle Support · SPX
Greek Cycle Support · NDX
Greek Cycle Support · NDX
Greek Cycle Support · ES
Greek Cycle Support · ES
Greek Cycle Support · NQ
Greek Cycle Support · NQ
Greek Cycle Support · SPY
Greek Cycle Support · SPY
Greek Cycle Support · QQQ
Greek Cycle Support · QQQ

Greek cycle support

Time series of absolute dealer gamma or vanna mass in the front monthly OPEX cycle (weeklies and 0DTE fold into the next third Friday). Compare today to past months at the same days-to-OPEX phase.

How to read

  • Top — underlying price (same sessions as the mass series).
  • Bottom — front-cycle absolute mass over sessions (up to ~1 year on the plot).
  • Dashed verticals — monthly option expiry (third Friday; quarterlies drawn heavier).
  • Dotted horizontal — same-phase median from prior cycles (when enough history exists).

Badge states

  • ABOVE AVG (red) — front mass is at least 15% above the same-phase median.
  • TYPICAL (green) — within ±15% of the median.
  • BELOW AVG (blue) — front mass is at least 15% below that median.
  • BUILDING — not enough same-phase history yet.
Beta Experimental chart — methodology and layout may change.

SPX Pattern Radar

SPX PATTERN RADAR — PRICE + YIELDS
SPX PATTERN RADAR — REGIME
SPX PATTERN RADAR — GEX (BETA)

SPX Pattern Radar

One card, three tracks. Price+Yields and Regime run a causal matrix-profile scan over a 63-session window across up to ~5 years of history and report median forward returns at 5 / 21 / 63 sessions. GEX uses the longest window that fits available rollup history (21 / 42 / 63) and upgrades as that history grows. Matches prefer the same days-to-monthly-OPEX phase.

Tabs

  • Price+Yields — log-return shape plus 10-year yield level, day-over-day yield change, and 2s10s spread.
  • Regime — returns, realized vol, VIX, and days-to-OPEX.
  • GEX — returns, vol, net dealer GEX, day-over-day GEX change, and OPEX phase (beta: shorter GEX history, adaptive window).

How to read

  • Shaded box — current query window for that track.
  • White dots — historical analogs (when they fall in the displayed window).
  • Gold line (Price+Yields) — 10-year Treasury yield on the right axis.
  • Footer — best match date, median forward returns, win rate.

Intraday Levels

Spot 7316

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 7650

  • Spot 7316 7316
  • Put Wall (7300) 7300
  • Gamma Flip (7404) 7404
  • Call Wall (7450) 7450

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 7450

  • Spot 7316 7316
  • Put Wall (7250) 7250
  • Gamma Flip (7446) 7446
  • Call Wall (7500) 7500

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 7320 – 7371

High open-interest zones

Calls 7475–7600 · centroid 7541 · 268K OI
Puts 7225–7350 · centroid 7281 · 196.1K OI

Spot 27192

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 25500

  • Spot 27192 27192
  • Put Wall (25500) 25500
  • Put Wall (27150) 27150
  • Gamma Flip (27565) 27565
  • Call Wall (27960) 27960

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 28025

  • Spot 27192 27192
  • Put Wall (24200) 24200
  • Put Wall (27000) 27000
  • Call Wall (27700) 27700
  • Gamma Flip (28444) 28444
  • Call Wall (29200) 29200

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 27206 – 27692

High open-interest zones

Calls 30100–30550 · centroid 30319 · 2K OI
Puts 23800–24250 · centroid 24097 · 5K OI

Spot 2906

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 3005

  • Spot 2906 2906
  • Put Wall (2840) 2840
  • Call Wall (2910) 2910
  • Gamma Flip (2941) 2941
  • Call Wall (3025) 3025

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 2940

  • Spot 2906 2906
  • Put Wall (2890) 2890
  • Call Wall (2935) 2935
  • Gamma Flip (3002) 3002

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 2907 – 2912

High open-interest zones

Calls 2975–3025 · centroid 3001 · 6.4K OI
Puts 2875–2925 · centroid 2887 · 30.2K OI

Spot 7495

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 6375

  • Spot 7495 7495
  • Put Wall (7450) 7450
  • Gamma Flip (7486) 7486
  • Call Wall (7500) 7500

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 6100

  • Spot 7495 7495
  • Put Wall (7425) 7425
  • Gamma Flip (7506) 7506
  • Call Wall (7550) 7550

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 7350 – 7399

High open-interest zones

Calls 7665–7830 · centroid 7744 · 95.8K OI
Puts 6340–6505 · centroid 6407 · 96.5K OI

Spot 28102

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 26000

  • Spot 28102 28102
  • Put Wall (28000) 28000
  • Call Wall (28350) 28350
  • Gamma Flip (28390) 28390

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 27000

  • Spot 28102 28102
  • Put Wall (26500) 26500
  • Put Wall (28000) 28000
  • Call Wall (28500) 28500
  • Gamma Flip (28663) 28663
  • Gamma Flip* (28774) 28774
  • Call Wall (30000) 30000

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 27337 – 27813

High open-interest zones

Calls 29180–29800 · centroid 29474 · 4.8K OI
Puts 27940–28560 · centroid 28185 · 7.7K OI

Spot 729

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 748

  • Spot 729 730
  • Call Wall (730) 730
  • Gamma Flip (739) 739

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 748

  • Spot 729 730
  • Put Wall (725) 725
  • Call Wall (740) 740
  • Gamma Flip (745) 745

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 730 – 734

High open-interest zones

Calls 753–765 · centroid 758 · 188K OI
Puts 717–729 · centroid 722 · 305.9K OI

Spot 662

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 685

  • Spot 662 662
  • Put Wall (661) 661
  • Gamma Flip (676) 676

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 685

  • Spot 662 662
  • Put Wall (661) 661
  • Call Wall (680) 680
  • Gamma Flip (682) 682
  • Gamma Flip* (692) 692

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 662 – 673

High open-interest zones

Calls 731–742 · centroid 736 · 158.9K OI
Puts 654–665 · centroid 659 · 177.6K OI

Spot 289

Intraday chart 0–1d

Max pain 295

  • Spot 289 288
  • Put Wall (288) 288
  • Gamma Flip (292) 292

Weekly chart ≤15d

Max pain 295

  • Spot 289 288
  • Put Wall (285) 285
  • Call Wall (291) 291
  • Gamma Flip (295) 295

Gaps

  • Jul 29 Up 288 – 289

High open-interest zones

Calls 295–300 · centroid 297 · 79.5K OI
Puts 285–290 · centroid 286 · 262.8K OI

Intraday Levels

Text summary of the same call walls, put walls, gamma flip, and max pain drawn on the Intraday and Weekly charts. Tabs follow the intraday chart symbols.

Intraday uses the 0–1 day options window with spaced call/put walls (2.5% of spot, max two per side); Weekly uses the near-term ≤15 day window (5% spacing, max two per side). Gaps list open overnight ranges (filled gaps excluded) with the session date they opened. High open-interest zones show the OI-weighted centroid and strike band for the dominant call and put clusters near spot.

Regime

Regime

Cross-market regime badges updated from the latest macro, credit, equity, and volatility data. Each tile links to the full chart on Macro, Economy, or Volatility.

Fed Watch is first — dominant Cut/Hold/Hike from fed funds futures. Macro tiles (yield curve, credit, quad map, weighted breadth) link to their full charts on Macro or Economy.

Volatility tiles (VIX, index dispersion) use the same full-history z-score badges as Volatility Summary. Hover for raw level and z. Dispersion ratio, term structure, DIX, and GEX use their dedicated chart classifiers.

Green on vol tiles means normal vs history.

Economic Calendar

Time Event Kind Metric Previous Expected Actual Status
14:00 ET Fed Interest Rate Decision Fed Level 3.75% 3.75% 3.75% Released
M/M 0 bps 0 bps 0 bps
14:00 ET FOMC Statement Fed Released
14:30 ET FOMC Press Conference Fed Live
08:30 ET Gross Domestic Product Growth Level 31.86K 32.12K 32.48K Released
Y/Y
M/M +1.38% +0.84% +1.94%
08:30 ET Personal Income and Outlays Inflation Level 131.5 131.7 131.4 Released
Y/Y +3.9% +3.7%
M/M +0.48% +0.11% -0.1%
08:30 ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Labor Level 187K 200.79K Late
Y/Y -14.61%
M/M -21000K +13795K
11:00 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 3.75 4.32 Late
M/M +202.36% +15.33%
12:30 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 3.75 4.32 Upcoming
M/M +202.36% +15.33%
12:30 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 3.75 4.32 Upcoming
M/M +202.36% +15.33%
08:30 ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Labor Level 187K 200.79K Upcoming
Y/Y -14.61%
M/M -21000K +13795K
12:30 ET Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) Growth Level 3.75 4.32 Upcoming
M/M +202.36% +15.33%
08:30 ET Employment Situation Labor Level 158.98K 158.97K Upcoming
Y/Y +0.32% +0.27%
M/M -17K -10K
08:30 ET Consumer Price Index Inflation Y/Y +3.5% +3.9% Upcoming
M/M -0.42% +0.66%
08:30 ET Producer Price Index Inflation Y/Y +5.5% +5.7% Upcoming
M/M -0.69% +1.02%
08:30 ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Labor Level 187K 200.79K Upcoming
Y/Y -14.61%
M/M -21000K +13795K
Guide

Each release shows separate rows for the headline level, month-over-month change, and year-over-year change when available. Previous is the last print; Actual fills in after the release. GDPNow and Fed projection rows use level only. Statement and press conference rows show a status when released or live.

Upcoming — before the scheduled time (countdown shown). Soon — release window (~15 minutes after the print time while waiting for data). Late — past the window with no actual yet. Released — actual is in.

Payrolls-style series show M/M as a thousands change (K). Policy rate decisions show M/M as basis points (bps). Click the event name to jump to the related chart on Credit.