Growth vs Inflation — Regime Map
Growth vs Inflation — Regime Map
Q@allocQuad
Stagflation
30 days in regime
Growth ↓ Inflation ↑ — Stagflation. Long gold, TIPS, energy.
Growth
0%
Value
40%
Gold
50%
Bonds
10%
Treasury Spreads
Regime: Bull Flattener
Quad 4
Action: Long rates fall faster than short rates
Growth and inflation cooling. Flight to safety.
Favors:
Long Duration Bonds, Gold
10Y–2Y Spread
+0.59%
3M Δ: -0.01%
10Y–3M Spread
+0.46%
inversion below 0
Spot Curve — Today vs 3M Ago vs 1Y Ago
Spread History — 24 Months
Refi Stress
MATURITY PRESSURE — CAUTION
Refinancing load is elevated vs historical average.
National Debt
$38.5T
Interest / Debt
3.2%
Total Maturing
$26,643.7B
Annual Refinancing Obligation — Billions USD
Existing Debt
Projected Refi
RMP Offset: A $40B/month supply absorption adjustment was applied here through early 2026, reflecting the Fed's Reverse Repo facility draining into T-bills. The facility peaked at $2,554B in late 2022 and was actively draining at ~$40B/month around mid-2024. It is now fully drained (~$1.5B outstanding) so the offset has been removed. Net maturities shown are unadjusted.
GDP, CPI, GDPNow
GDP vs Inflation
Goldilocks
Growth vs CPI regime
Calculated by comparing latext YoY GDP Growth (target 2%) vs CPI Inflation (target 3%).
Phillips Signal
Soft Landing
U vs CPI tradeoff
Measures the tradeoff between Unemployment (target 4.5%) and Inflation (target 3.0%).
Latest GDP
+2.2%
YoY — Q4 '25
GDPNow Est.
Headline GDPNow is shown as a QoQ Annualized rate. Below this is the implied YoY rate (used on the chart) for accurate trend comparison.
+4.2%
QoQ Ann.
YoY: +3.5%
Oct 1 — Q1(E)
Inflation (CPI)
+2.7%
YoY — Q4 '25
Unemployment
4.3%
UNRATE — Current
GDP Growth (YoY) & Inflation (CPI YoY) — Last ~52 Months (17 Quarters)
Fiscal Flow
FISCAL FLOW — CAUTION
Score 0.64
Signs of private sector balance contraction.
Govt Balance
-7.7%
-2.0% ▼
% of GDP — Q4 2025
Foreign Balance
-1.9%
+0.3% ▲
Trade balance % GDP
Private Savings
+9.6%
+1.7% ▲
Derived: -(Govt + Foreign)
Sectoral Balances as % of GDP — Last 52 Months