Fed watch

Fed Watch translates 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing into probabilities for the next FOMC decision. The futures contract settles on the average effective federal funds rate for the month, so the market price embeds expectations for both the pre-meeting days and the post-decision days in that month.

This chart applies the standard day-weighting adjustment: it solves for the implied post-meeting rate, then spreads probability across 25 bp target bands. The top panel tracks weekly shifts in cut/hold/hike odds; the bottom panel shows today's full rate-band breakdown.

How to read it

• Top — weekly trend — Green is cut, orange is hold, red is hike. Each point uses that week's last futures close.
• Bottom — rate bands — Horizontal bars are possible target ranges after the next meeting. The highlighted band is today's target; bar length is implied probability.
• Badge — Dominant outcome today, days to the next FOMC, and the current target band.

Credit stress

Credit stress measures how much extra yield the bond market is demanding to hold corporate debt versus risk-free Treasuries. When that spread is wide, it signals fear — lenders are pricing in a higher probability of default. When it compresses, credit markets are calm and capital is flowing freely.

This chart is one of the earliest warning systems for systemic risk. Equity markets often lag credit by weeks. A jump in stress while equities are still rising is a yellow flag worth monitoring closely.

Badge states

• TIGHT — Credit spreads are unusually compressed. Markets are pricing near-zero default risk. Often coincides with risk-on positioning and low volatility. Can signal complacency.
• NORMAL — Spreads are within their historical average range. No unusual stress or euphoria. Baseline functioning credit market.
• WIDE — Spreads are starting to widen. Credit markets are beginning to price in increased risk. Watch for confirmation from equity breadth and volatility.
• STRESS — Spreads have broken to historically elevated levels. Credit markets are in distress. Has historically preceded equity drawdowns. Treat as a significant risk-off signal.

Tabs

• Spot Curve — Treasury rates across maturities (today vs 3M and 1Y ago). Level and shape encode growth expectations, inflation risk, and Fed policy.
• History — 10Y–2Y and 10Y–3M spreads over time. When 10Y–2Y falls below zero, the curve is inverted — a classic recession-warning signal.

Yield curve

The yield curve plots Treasury rates across maturities — from short bills to long bonds. Both tabs share the same header badge: a bull/bear steepener/flattener classifier based on how 2Y and 10Y yields moved over the last three months — whether rates overall rose or fell (bear vs bull) and whether the 2Y–10Y spread widened or narrowed (steepener vs flattener).

Spot curve shape (normal vs inverted) still matters — inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since 1970 — but the badge tells you the dynamic regime driving the move, not just today's snapshot.

Badge states (curve dynamics)

Fallback badge states

When there is not enough history to classify dynamics (common on the History tab), the badge falls back to:

• Inverted — 10Y–2Y below zero. Historically a recession warning.
• Normal — 10Y–2Y above zero. Expansion signal.

Economic conditions

Five tabs cover the macro backdrop traders watch on every data release. Combined tracks the Fed dual mandate — GDP growth, CPI, unemployment, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow. GDP breaks real growth into expenditure components (consumption, investment, government, net exports). Inflation compares headline/core CPI, PCE, and PPI on a year-over-year basis. Components stacks CPI shelter, services, goods, food, and energy against headline CPI. Jobs shows monthly nonfarm payroll change by sector alongside unemployment.

Watch these panels to understand whether growth, prices, and labor are aligned or diverging — that alignment drives the path of rates and risk appetite across markets.