What This Chart Shows

This chart models SPX as a hidden regime process using gamma-related features, returns, and volatility as observations. It displays the estimated latent market state alongside regime probabilities.

Reading the Signals

• Bullish State (Green): Positive drift and lower volatility, typically aligning with positive gamma or above-flip conditions.
• Bearish State (Red): Negative drift and expanding volatility, typically aligning with negative gamma or below-flip conditions.
• Neutral State (Gold): Mixed directional drift with no strong market-maker tilt.

Quantitative Interpretation

The edge comes from estimating regime persistence and state-conditioned behavior rather than relying on static rules. Gamma features help explain regime transitions when dealer positioning shifts market structure.

What This Chart Shows

This chart scans SPX's full price history for 20-day windows that look like the last 20 trading days — a matrix-profile style nearest-neighbor search over raw price shape. When a close historical analog exists, it reports what actually happened in the days that followed. Only matches old enough that their outcome has already played out are counted, so there is no look-ahead.

How To Read This Chart

• The blue line is SPX's daily closing price.
• The shaded box at the right edge is today's pattern — the most recent 20 trading days, the exact shape being compared against the rest of history.
• White dots mark historical dates whose preceding 20-day price shape closely matched today's. The search covers six-plus years of history, but the chart only displays about a year of it, so some (or all) of the matches behind the numbers below may be too far back to show up as a dot here.
• The badge in the top-right corner is a one-word read of today: Strong Analog, Typical Pattern, or Unprecedented.
• The text line under the chart has the actual numbers: the best match's similarity score and date, what SPX did in the 5/10/20 trading days afterward, the win rate, and how many matches (n) went into those stats.

Reading the Badge

• Strong Analog: Today's shape sits near the low end of the historical distance distribution — a close match exists, with real forward-return stats attached.
• Typical Pattern: No standout match, but nothing unusual either.
• Unprecedented Pattern: Today's closest historical neighbor is farther away than ~90% of all historical days ever were from their own closest neighbor — a genuine anomaly.

What This Chart Shows

This chart scans history for 20-day stretches where SPX's return, realized volatility, VIX level, and FINRA DIX (dark-pool short volume) all looked like the last 20 trading days — a multivariate matrix-profile search over market regime, not just price shape. When a close analog exists, it reports realized forward returns. Only matches whose outcome window has already elapsed are counted.

How To Read This Chart

• The purple line is SPX's daily closing price, shown only for visual context.
• The shaded box at the right edge marks the current 20-day window — but the actual comparison runs on return, realized volatility, VIX, and DIX over that window, not on price shape.
• White dots mark historical dates whose 20-day VIX+DIX regime closely matched today's. Because price shape isn't what's being matched, a dot can appear in a period that doesn't visually resemble today's chart at all. The chart only displays about a year of the history actually searched, so some matches behind the numbers below may be off-screen.
• The badge in the top-right corner is a one-word read of today: Strong Analog, Typical Pattern, or Unprecedented.
• The text line under the chart has the actual numbers: the best match's similarity score and date, what SPX did in the 5/10/20 trading days afterward, the win rate, and how many matches (n) went into those stats.

Reading the Badge

• Strong Analog: Today's volatility/positioning regime closely resembles a specific past period.
• Typical Pattern: No standout match, but nothing unusual either.
• Unprecedented Pattern: Today's regime is farther from its closest historical neighbor than ~90% of all days ever were — a genuine anomaly.