What to look at
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Desk / DELL
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Price at the green and red walls, and at the edge of the gold band. Green/red fill is near-term open interest. Grey outline is next Friday. The row below the chart is implied move, option IV, realized vol, and IV versus the stock.
Above zero at spot, dealer hedging resists. Below, it chases. A flip near spot is the pin.
Front versus back. A downward slope is event vol. The dashed line is leftover vol after the event.
Puts richer than calls is the crash bid. Compare the two expiries. Event-dated smiles steepen.
Puts below spot are a cushion. Calls above are a lid. Max pain near spot on 0–2 DTE is pin risk.
1 contract ($100). OTM is 0–2 DTE at ~1× implied move; profit shown is a 1σ winning move at expiry. Other rows use a later expiry. At-expiry dollars. Select a row to load the calculator. Not a recommendation.
| Template | Net | Max profit | Max loss | P(profit) | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long put 455P 7 DTE | -$2498 | ~+$3821 | $2498 | 36% | +$4 |
| Long call 455C 7 DTE | -$2630 | ~+$3928 | $2630 | 33% | -$9 |
| Put spread 455P 400P 7 DTE | -$1948 | +$3552 | $1948 | 40% | -$16 |
| Call spread 455C 530C 7 DTE | -$2102 | +$5398 | $2102 | 35% | +$7 |
| Long straddle 455C 455P 7 DTE | -$5128 | ~+$1311 | $5128 | 42% | -$5 |
| Long strangle 400P 530C 7 DTE | -$1078 | ~+$5427 | $1078 | 25% | +$4 |
| Cash-secured put 400P 7 DTE | +$550 | +$550 | $39450 | 83% | -$20 |
| Covered call 455C 7 DTE | -$42994 | +$2506 | $42994 | 64% | +$9 |
| Collar 432.5P 477.5C 7 DTE | -$45369 | +$2381 | $2119 | 49% | +$49 |
| Short straddle 455C 455P 7 DTE | +$5128 | +$5128 | unlimited | 58% | +$5 |
| Short strangle 400P 530C 7 DTE | +$1078 | +$1078 | unlimited | 75% | -$4 |
Compare EV on the same expiry. Click a row to load the calculator. Candles sit left of the P/L profile on a shared price axis; hover for price and dollars.
snapshot · fresh until