About

Blue is the 0-100 AI Bubble Index over time, weighting seven parts: credit, rates plus the debt gate, hyperscaler funding, capital spending (capex), and the VanEck Semiconductor exchange-traded fund (SMH) twelve-month return. The cards below follow the bar order, and each shows the number its bar scores. Dotted amber marks 33, dashed red marks 66, and grey spans mark sessions capped at 66 because credit was Cash financed.

Instructions

Read the badge and its score first. Read the bottom bars for which parts run hot. Add the points in each label, score times weight, to get the index.

Signals

• Calm - The weighted score is 33 or below.
• Elevated - The weighted score is 34 to 66, or credit is Cash financed so the score is capped at 66.
• Hot - The weighted score is above 66. This is not the credit Alert.

Bottom panel

Each bar is one part on a 0-100 scale, where 100 is most stress. Colour groups the parts: blue credit, amber funding, cyan spend, purple price. Credit reads AI Credit Regime. Rates + debt gate scores 100 only when Treasury Yields confirms and Debt / Capex is at or above 0.30. Debt/Capex and FCF/Capex are the four-quarter values on Funding Mix. Capex YoY and Real YoY come from the Hyperscalers Capex / CPI basket. SMH is its twelve-month return. US Semis Capex / CPI is context and is not in the index.

Symbols

• AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL - the hyperscaler basket, from SEC filings. Supplies capital spending (capex), operating cash flow, and new long-term debt for the funding, anchor, and capex parts.
• BAMLH0A3HYC - ICE BofA CCC and lower option-adjusted spread, via FRED. Paired with high yield for the credit part.
• BAMLH0A0HYM2 - ICE BofA US high-yield option-adjusted spread, via FRED. The gap to CCC is the excess spread the credit part scores.
• DGS2, DGS10, DFII5 - two-year and ten-year Treasury yields and the five-year real yield, via FRED. Feed the rate tests on the debt gate.
• CPIAUCSL - headline consumer price index, via FRED. Deflates capex for the real capex part.
• SMH - VanEck Semiconductor exchange-traded fund (ETF) daily closes. Supplies the price part.