About

Blue is the 0-100 AI Bubble Index over time. It weights credit, hyperscaler funding, capital spending (capex), and the VanEck Semiconductor exchange-traded fund (SMH) twelve-month return. Dotted amber is Elevated at 33, dashed red is Alert at 66, and Alert is blocked while credit is Cash financed.

Instructions

Read the badge first. Read the bottom bars for which of Credit, Funding, Spend, and Price is adding the most.

Signals

• Calm - The four parts sit in the lower third.
• Elevated - Stress is building, or credit is Cash financed so Alert is capped.
• Alert - The score is in the top third and credit is Debt financed or Alert.

Bottom panel

Credit, Funding, Spend, and Price are the four weighted lanes. Bar height is points contributed to the index.