About

Blue is extra yield on CCC-rated and weaker bonds minus extra yield on the whole US high-yield market; CCC is a weak credit grade. Gray is high yield. Both series are Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Bank of America (BofA) option-adjusted spreads (OAS) over Treasuries, with yellow Debt financed bands and red Alert bands.

Instructions

Check the badge first. Read the blue gap against the muted broad line. Treat Alert as credit pricing risk before semiconductor stocks react.

Signals

• Cash financed - Trailing-four-quarter debt over capital spending (capex) is below 0.30.
• Debt financed - A large share of AI spending has shifted to debt. Leverage risk is building, and bond markets are calm.
• Alert - Weak-credit bonds are under stress, and Treasury yields confirm it. Both held for three trading days.