About

Green is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield. Amber is the five-year real yield, which is the five-year yield after inflation. Alert needs that 10-year minus 2-year gap to be positive and getting larger, and the five-year real yield to fall.

Instructions

Read both lines together. Treat the badge as the full credit regime, independent of this panel.

Signals

• Cash financed - Trailing-four-quarter debt over capital spending (capex) is below 0.30.
• Debt financed - A large share of AI spending has shifted to debt. Leverage risk is building, and bond markets are calm.
• Alert - Weak-credit bonds are under stress, and Treasury yields confirm it. Both held for three trading days.