About

Green is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield. Blue is the 2-year yield. Amber is the five-year real yield, which is the five-year yield after inflation.

Instructions

Read the badge as the rate half of the credit Alert. Check four tests over 63 sessions: green above zero and up at least 0.25, blue down at least 0.25, and amber down at least 0.15. Read the badge note for each test that fails.

Signals

• Not confirming - At least one rate test fails. The credit Alert cannot fire.
• Confirming - All four rate tests pass. Front-end and real yields are falling while the curve steepens.
• Unavailable - A rate series is missing or stale.

Symbols

• DGS2 - two-year Treasury constant maturity yield, via FRED. Plotted, and the front-end rally test.
• DGS10 - ten-year Treasury constant maturity yield, via FRED. Minus the two-year gives the plotted slope.
• DFII5 - five-year Treasury inflation-indexed yield, via FRED. Plotted, and the belly rally test.
• BAMLH0A3HYC - ICE BofA CCC and lower option-adjusted spread, via FRED. Sets the regime badge on this card.
• BAMLH0A0HYM2 - ICE BofA US high-yield option-adjusted spread, via FRED. Sets the regime badge on this card.