About

Amber is SMH, the VanEck Semiconductor exchange-traded fund (ETF). Blue is SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. Green, yellow, and red backgrounds are Cash financed, Debt financed, and Credit Stress Alert from the credit regime.

Instructions

Read both lines together. Treat the badge as the full credit regime, independent of this panel. Treat a red background as Credit Stress Alert already confirmed in credit and Treasuries.

Signals

• Cash financed - Trailing-four-quarter Debt / Capex is below 0.30.
• Debt financed - A large share of AI spending has shifted to debt. Leverage risk is building, and bond markets are calm.
• Alert - Weak-credit bonds are under stress, and Treasury yields confirm it. Both held for three trading days.

Symbols

• SMH - VanEck Semiconductor exchange-traded fund (ETF) daily closes, the left axis.
• SPY - SPDR S&P 500 ETF daily closes, the right axis.
• BAMLH0A3HYC - ICE BofA CCC and lower option-adjusted spread, via FRED.
• BAMLH0A0HYM2 - ICE BofA US high-yield option-adjusted spread, via FRED.
• DGS2, DGS10, DFII5 - two-year and ten-year Treasury yields and the five-year real yield, via FRED.
• AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL - the hyperscaler basket, from SEC filings. Supplies the Debt / Capex ratio behind the Cash financed and Debt financed bands.