About

Two indexed lines for a US-listed semiconductor capital spending (capex) basket. This is filings, not the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), and it is context only rather than part of the AI Bubble Index. Solid blue is capex divided by the consumer price index (CPI) and dashed green is nominal capex, with the axis starting in 2020.

Instructions

Read the title as US Semis Capex. Treat Stretched as Capex / CPI high versus its own history. Expect the latest quarter to stay off the chart until at least 80 percent of trailing-four-quarter spend has filed.

Signals

• Tight - Latest complete Capex / CPI is low versus its own history.
• Typical - Latest complete Capex / CPI sits near its own average.
• Stretched - Latest complete Capex / CPI is high versus its own history.

Symbols

• NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, INTC, TXN, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, ADI - the US-listed semiconductor basket, from SEC filings.
• TSM, ASML - added when they have filed. Coverage is optional, so a quarter still completes without them.
• CPIAUCSL - headline consumer price index, via FRED. Divides capex to give the real line.
• DEXTAUS - Taiwan dollars per US dollar, via FRED. Converts TSM.
• DEXUSEU - US dollars per euro, via FRED. Converts ASML.