What to look at
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Above zero at spot, dealer hedging resists. Below, it chases. A flip near spot is the pin.
Front versus back. A downward slope is event vol. The dashed line is leftover vol after the event.
Puts richer than calls is the crash bid. Compare the two expiries. Event-dated smiles steepen.
Puts below spot are a cushion. Calls above are a lid. Max pain near spot on 0–2 DTE is pin risk.
| Template | Net | Max profit | Max loss | Profit% | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long put 197.5P 11 DTE | -$535 | ~+$809 | $535 | 35% | -$1 |
| Long call 197.5C 11 DTE | -$545 | ~+$819 | $545 | 34% | -$1 |
| OTM long put (est.) 192.5P 1 DTE | -$73 | ~+$77 | $73 | 19% | +$3 |
| OTM long call (est.) 200C 1 DTE | -$99 | ~+$182 | $99 | 24% | +$15 |
| Put spread 197.5P 190P 11 DTE | -$287 | +$462 | $287 | 43% | +$13 |
| Call spread 197.5C 200C 11 DTE | -$130 | +$120 | $130 | 45% | -$17 |
| Long straddle 197.5C 197.5P 11 DTE | -$1080 | ~+$276 | $1080 | 42% | -$1 |
| Long strangle 190P 200C 11 DTE | -$662 | ~+$732 | $662 | 39% | +$2 |
| Cash-secured put 190P 11 DTE | +$248 | +$248 | $18752 | 77% | +$14 |
| Covered call 197.5C 11 DTE | -$19143 | +$607 | $19143 | 67% | +$1 |
| Collar 190P 207.5C 11 DTE | -$19748 | +$1002 | $748 | 49% | -$19 |
| Short straddle 197.5C 197.5P 11 DTE | +$1080 | +$1080 | unlimited | 58% | +$1 |
| Short strangle 190P 200C 11 DTE | +$662 | +$662 | unlimited | 61% | -$2 |
| Action | Right | Expiry | Qty | Strike | Mid | Δ |
|---|
Compare EV on the same expiry. Click a row to load the calculator. Switch 5m, 30m, or Daily candles on the left of the P/L profile; hover for price and dollars.
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