What to look at
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Desk / MDT
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Price at the green and red walls, and at the edge of the gold band. Green/red fill is near-term open interest. Grey outline is next Friday. The row below the chart is implied move, option IV, realized vol, and IV versus the stock.
Above zero at spot, dealer hedging resists. Below, it chases. A flip near spot is the pin.
Front versus back. A downward slope is event vol. The dashed line is leftover vol after the event.
Puts richer than calls is the crash bid. Compare the two expiries. Event-dated smiles steepen.
Puts below spot are a cushion. Calls above are a lid. Max pain near spot on 0–2 DTE is pin risk.
1 contract ($100). OTM is 0–2 DTE at ~1× implied move; profit shown is a 1σ winning move at expiry. Other rows use a later expiry. At-expiry dollars. Select a row to load the calculator. Not a recommendation.
| Template | Net | Max profit | Max loss | P(profit) | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long put 91P 7 DTE | -$214 | ~+$334 | $214 | 35% | +$1 |
| Long call 91C 7 DTE | -$243 | ~+$363 | $243 | 34% | +$1 |
| Put spread 91P 87P 7 DTE | -$148 | +$251 | $148 | 39% | -$5 |
| Call spread 91C 97C 7 DTE | -$189 | +$411 | $189 | 38% | +$1 |
| Long straddle 91C 91P 7 DTE | -$457 | ~+$120 | $457 | 43% | +$2 |
| Long strangle 87P 97C 7 DTE | -$119 | ~+$458 | $119 | 29% | +$6 |
| Cash-secured put 87P 7 DTE | +$66 | +$66 | $8634 | 80% | -$6 |
| Covered call 91C 7 DTE | -$8880 | +$220 | $8880 | 66% | -$1 |
| Collar 87P 95C 7 DTE | -$9088 | +$411 | $389 | 52% | +$13 |
| Short straddle 91C 91P 7 DTE | +$457 | +$457 | unlimited | 57% | -$2 |
| Short strangle 87P 97C 7 DTE | +$119 | +$119 | unlimited | 71% | -$6 |
Compare EV on the same expiry. Click a row to load the calculator. Candles sit left of the P/L profile on a shared price axis; hover for price and dollars.
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