Desk / TSM
Price at the green and red walls, and at the edge of the gold band. Green/red fill is near-term open interest. Grey outline is next Friday. The row below the chart is implied move, option IV, realized vol, and IV versus the stock.
Above zero at spot, dealer hedging resists. Below, it chases. A flip near spot is the pin.
Front versus back. A downward slope is event vol. The dashed line is leftover vol after the event.
Puts richer than calls is the crash bid. Compare the two expiries. Event-dated smiles steepen.
Puts below spot are a cushion. Calls above are a lid. Max pain near spot on 0–2 DTE is pin risk.
1 contract ($100). OTM is 0–2 DTE at ~1× implied move; profit shown is a 1σ winning move at expiry. Other rows use a later expiry. At-expiry dollars. Select a row to load the calculator. Not a recommendation.
| Template | Net | Max profit | Max loss | P(profit) | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long put 417.5P 7 DTE | -$643 | ~+$979 | $643 | 35% | -$1 |
| Long call 417.5C 7 DTE | -$690 | ~+$1026 | $690 | 34% | -$1 |
| Put spread 417.5P 402.5P 7 DTE | -$485 | +$1015 | $485 | 38% | +$5 |
| Call spread 417.5C 435C 7 DTE | -$540 | +$1210 | $540 | 38% | +$7 |
| Long straddle 417.5C 417.5P 7 DTE | -$1332 | ~+$339 | $1332 | 42% | -$2 |
| Long strangle 402.5P 435C 7 DTE | -$307 | ~+$1393 | $307 | 25% | -$14 |
| Cash-secured put 402.5P 7 DTE | +$158 | +$158 | $40092 | 85% | +$6 |
| Covered call 417.5C 7 DTE | -$41062 | +$688 | $41062 | 66% | +$1 |
| Collar 397.5P 437.5C 7 DTE | -$41730 | +$2019 | $1981 | 51% | -$5 |
| Short straddle 417.5C 417.5P 7 DTE | +$1332 | +$1332 | unlimited | 58% | +$2 |
| Short strangle 402.5P 435C 7 DTE | +$307 | +$307 | unlimited | 75% | +$14 |
Compare EV on the same expiry. Click a row to load the calculator. Candles sit left of the P/L profile on a shared price axis; hover for price and dollars.
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