What to look at
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Front ATM IV minus next. A gap of 5 or more vol points is inverted. Event premium sits in the front expiry.
Above zero at spot, dealer hedging resists. Below, it chases. A flip near spot is the pin.
Front versus back. A downward slope is event vol. The dashed line is leftover vol after the event.
Puts richer than calls is the crash bid. Compare the two expiries. Event-dated smiles steepen.
Puts below spot are a cushion. Calls above are a lid. Max pain near spot on 0–2 DTE is pin risk.
| Template | Net | Max profit | Max loss | Profit% | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long put 445P 11 DTE | -$1077 | ~+$1627 | $1077 | 35% | -$7 |
| Long call 445C 11 DTE | -$1142 | ~+$1692 | $1142 | 34% | -$7 |
| OTM long put (est.) 435P 1 DTE | -$127 | ~+$49 | $127 | 17% | -$6 |
| OTM long call (est.) 452.5C 1 DTE | -$156 | ~+$151 | $156 | 19% | -$0 |
| Put spread 445P 420P 11 DTE | -$799 | +$1701 | $799 | 39% | +$27 |
| Call spread 445C 475C 11 DTE | -$912 | +$2088 | $912 | 37% | -$3 |
| Long straddle 445C 445P 11 DTE | -$2220 | ~+$568 | $2220 | 42% | -$15 |
| Long strangle 420P 475C 11 DTE | -$508 | ~+$2397 | $508 | 24% | -$38 |
| Cash-secured put 420P 11 DTE | +$278 | +$278 | $41722 | 85% | +$34 |
| Covered call 445C 11 DTE | -$43292 | +$1207 | $43292 | 67% | +$7 |
| Collar 425P 465C 11 DTE | -$44385 | +$2115 | $1885 | 51% | -$19 |
| Short straddle 445C 445P 11 DTE | +$2220 | +$2220 | unlimited | 58% | +$15 |
| Short strangle 420P 475C 11 DTE | +$508 | +$508 | unlimited | 76% | +$38 |
| Action | Right | Expiry | Qty | Strike | Mid | Δ |
|---|
Compare EV on the same expiry. Click a row to load the calculator. Switch 5m, 30m, or Daily candles on the left of the P/L profile; hover for price and dollars.
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