About

Fed Watch turns 30-day Fed Funds futures into implied probabilities for the next FOMC decision. Derived from CME Fed Funds futures via day-weighted meeting probabilities.

Instructions

Read the weekly trend for how cut, hold, and hike odds have shifted. Compare the latest week to the rate-band panel for which target ranges the market prices. Treat rising cut odds with mass shifting to lower bands as rising easing conviction.

Signals

• Cut - Dominant FOMC outcome is below the current target band.
• Hold - Dominant outcome overlaps the current target band.
• Hike - Dominant outcome is above the current target band.
• Mixed - Outcomes split without a clear dominant band.
• Unknown - Odds could not be parsed.