Macro Compass
| Date | Quad | Growth | Infl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.22 | +0.85 |
| Jul 31, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.20 | +0.81 |
| Jun 30, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.85 | +0.73 |
| May 31, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.77 | +0.63 |
| Apr 30, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.65 | +0.43 |
| Mar 31, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.47 | +0.16 |
| Feb 28, 26 | Quad 4 | -0.18 | -0.13 |
| Jan 31, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.27 | +0.12 |
| Dec 31, 25 | Quad 2 | +0.95 | +0.36 |
| Nov 30, 25 | Quad 2 | +0.92 | +0.48 |
| Oct 31, 25 | Quad 2 | +0.89 | +0.43 |
| Sep 30, 25 | Quad 2 | +0.83 | +0.20 |
| Date | Quad | Meet | Policy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.67 | +0.74 |
| Aug 21, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.66 | +0.67 |
| Aug 14, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.64 | +0.63 |
| Aug 7, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.61 | +0.61 |
| Jul 31, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.56 | +0.51 |
| Jul 24, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.50 | +0.27 |
| Jul 17, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.39 | +0.16 |
| Jul 10, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.23 | +0.38 |
| Jul 2, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| Jun 26, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.40 | +0.35 |
| Jun 18, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.42 | +0.29 |
| Jun 12, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.46 | +0.03 |
About
The Macro Compass places the cycle on two maps. Each map is a four-room quad from two axes. Nowcast plots growth acceleration versus inflation acceleration. Policy Stance plots meet/miss (GDPNow and earnings versus the recent path) versus hike/cut from Fed Funds futures.
Instructions
Read both axes on the active tab. On Nowcast, use growth and inflation transitions to frame sector tilts. On Policy Stance, weigh meet/miss against hike/cut when policy tails or growth shortfalls matter even if the Fed badge still says Hold. Confirm with price action before sizing risk.
Signals
QUAD 1 - Goldilocks / Soft Landing
Nowcast: growth up, inflation down. Policy Stance: meet/miss up, hike/cut down. Risk assets tend to lead.
QUAD 2 - Reflation / Late Cycle
Nowcast: growth up, inflation up. Policy Stance: meet/miss up, hike/cut up. Cyclicals and commodities tend to lead; policy patience shortens.
QUAD 3 - Stagflation / Hard Landing
Nowcast: growth down, inflation up. Policy Stance: meet/miss down, hike/cut up. Equities and credit struggle; real assets matter more.
QUAD 4 - Deflation / Slowdown
Nowcast: growth down, inflation down. Policy Stance: meet/miss down, hike/cut down. Duration often works; equities need an earnings trough.
Tabs
- Nowcast - X is growth acceleration (two-quarter change in GDPNow; fallback real GDP YoY). Y is inflation acceleration (CPI/PCE YoY change). Axes are noise-normalized. The puck is an EMA; the open tip is the last print.
- Policy Stance - X is meet/miss (GDPNow versus last BEA real YoY, blended with SPY trailing EPS momentum). Y is hike minus cut from Fed Funds futures. Rooms: Soft Landing, Late Cycle, Hard Landing, Slowdown.