Macro Compass
| Date | Quad | Growth | Infl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.67 | +0.34 |
| Sep 30, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.49 | +0.70 |
| Aug 31, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.22 | +0.84 |
| Jul 31, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.20 | +0.79 |
| Jun 30, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.85 | +0.72 |
| May 31, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.77 | +0.63 |
| Apr 30, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.65 | +0.43 |
| Mar 31, 26 | Quad 3 | -0.47 | +0.16 |
| Feb 28, 26 | Quad 4 | -0.18 | -0.13 |
| Jan 31, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.26 | +0.12 |
| Dec 31, 25 | Quad 2 | +0.95 | +0.36 |
| Nov 30, 25 | Quad 2 | +0.92 | +0.48 |
| Date | Quad | Meet | Policy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.50 | +0.47 |
| Oct 9, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.50 | +0.44 |
| Oct 2, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.50 | +0.57 |
| Sep 25, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.50 | +0.77 |
| Sep 18, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.50 | +0.84 |
| Sep 11, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.49 | +0.85 |
| Sep 4, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.49 | +0.78 |
| Aug 28, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.48 | +0.74 |
| Aug 21, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.47 | +0.67 |
| Aug 14, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.45 | +0.63 |
| Aug 7, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.42 | +0.61 |
| Jul 31, 26 | Quad 2 | +0.37 | +0.51 |
About
The Macro Compass places the cycle on two maps. Each map is a four-room quad: Nowcast plots growth acceleration versus inflation acceleration, and Policy Stance plots meet/miss versus hike/cut from Fed Funds futures.
Instructions
Read both axes on the active tab. Use Nowcast growth and inflation transitions, and Policy Stance meet/miss versus hike/cut, to frame sector tilts. Confirm with price action before sizing risk.
Signals
QUAD 1 - Goldilocks / Soft Landing
Nowcast: growth up, inflation down. Policy Stance: meet/miss up, hike/cut down. Risk assets tend to lead.
QUAD 2 - Reflation / Late Cycle
Nowcast: growth up, inflation up. Policy Stance: meet/miss up, hike/cut up. Cyclicals and commodities tend to lead; policy patience shortens.
QUAD 3 - Stagflation / Hard Landing
Nowcast: growth down, inflation up. Policy Stance: meet/miss down, hike/cut up. Equities and credit struggle; real assets matter more.
QUAD 4 - Deflation / Slowdown
Nowcast: growth down, inflation down. Policy Stance: meet/miss down, hike/cut down. Duration often works; equities need an earnings trough.
Tabs
- Nowcast - X is growth acceleration (two-quarter change in GDPNow; fallback real GDP YoY). Y is inflation acceleration (CPI/PCE YoY change). Axes are noise-normalized. The puck is an EMA; the open tip is the last print.
- Policy Stance - X is meet/miss (GDPNow versus last BEA real YoY, blended with SPY trailing EPS momentum). Y is hike minus cut from Fed Funds futures. Rooms: Soft Landing, Late Cycle, Hard Landing, Slowdown.