About

Bars show the Buffett Indicator, the market value of US nonfinancial corporate stock divided by nominal GDP as a percent, at the peak of each past market bubble since 1947. The last bar is Now: the latest quarter carried forward to the latest weekly S&P 500 close. Dashed grey is the average of every quarter since 1947, and the badge ranks Now against all of them.

Instructions

Read the Now bar against the bubble bars to its left and against dashed grey. Check the date under Now: it is the latest Friday close, and it shows the latest quarter instead when the S&P 500 has no close after that quarter ended. Treat the badge as a slow valuation gauge: the stock value series publishes about ten weeks after each quarter ends, so the weekly estimate moves with prices only.

Signals

• Cheap - Now ranks below the 25th percentile of every quarter since 1947.
• Fair Value - Now ranks from the 25th to below the 75th percentile.
• Rich - Now ranks from the 75th to below the 95th percentile.
• Extreme - Now ranks in the top 5 percent of every quarter since 1947.

Symbols

• NCBEILQ027S - Federal Reserve Z.1 market value of nonfinancial corporate equities, millions of dollars, via FRED. Supplies the numerator.
• GDP - nominal gross domestic product, billions of dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, via FRED. Supplies the denominator; Now uses the latest quarter.
• ^GSPC - S&P 500 daily closes, via Yahoo. Carries the latest quarter forward to the latest week close for the Now bar.