About

Cap-weighted advance/decline breadth for S&P 500 stocks plotted alongside equal-weighted breadth, showing where capital is flowing versus simple stock count. Cap-weighted breadth adapts the advance/decline line that dates to the 1930s.

Instructions

Compare the cap-weighted histogram to the equal-weighted line. Note when both are positive and cap-weight leads, broad participation confirms the trend. Note when they diverge - cap-weight positive but equal-weight flat or negative - mega-cap stocks are carrying the index while the majority weaken.

Signals

• Hold long - Both readings positive; cap-weight leading. Do not fade.
• Hold short - Both readings negative; cap-weight leading down. Do not fade.
• Regime flip - Both crossed above zero; early bull trigger.
• Regime flip - Both crossed below zero; early bear trigger.
• Lagging - Histogram diverging from the equal-weight line; weak follow-through.
• Mixed - Signs diverging; cut size.
• Neutral / Compression - Flat or near zero; chop risk.