Implied vs Realized Vol
About
Near-dated index implied volatility against realized volatility, with the gap scored on this market's own history. Shows whether protection is rich or cheap relative to what has printed.
Instructions
Read the badge as rich or cheap vs this market's trailing distribution. Treat top-decile spreads as expensive protection. Treat realized above implied as the state that hurts short-vol positions.
Signals
- VOL RICH - Spread in the top decile of its trailing window.
- ABOVE NORMAL - Spread above the 70th percentile.
- NORMAL - Mid-range.
- BELOW NORMAL - Spread below the 30th percentile.
- VOL CHEAP - Spread in the bottom decile.
- RV EXCEEDS IV - Realized above implied today; overrides percentile bands.
- BUILDING HISTORY - Fewer than one year of scored sessions.