About

Consecutive S&P 500 sessions without a close-to-close move of 2%, 3%, or 5%. Each panel is a drought clock that resets to zero on the day that threshold prints.

Instructions

Read the 2% badge as the live clock. Treat FRESH BREAK as a 2% day on the last session. Treat STRETCHED as a long open drought versus recent completed 2% droughts. The 3% and 5% panels show the slower clocks. They do not drive the badge.

Signals

• FRESH BREAK - Last session printed a close-to-close move of 2% or more.
• SHORT - Open 2% drought below the 30th percentile of recent completed droughts.
• NORMAL - Mid-range 2% drought.
• EXTENDED - Open 2% drought above the 70th percentile.
• STRETCHED - Open 2% drought in the top decile.
• BUILDING - Fewer than one year of sessions or fewer than 20 completed 2% droughts.

Overlay

• 2% drought - Cyan fill. Days without a 2% close-to-close move. Dashed line is the sample record.
• 3% drought - Purple fill. Same clock at 3%.
• 5% drought - Red fill. Same clock at 5%.